Energy Nerd (en’er je nurd),
n. Slang 1) A person who takes great interest and some pleasure in studying statistics regarding energy production, use, supply, etc.
2) Yours truly.
OK, I admit it. I eagerly grab and review the latest energy stats like a Trekkie jumping at a new video of Star Trek outtakes. But in my defense (and on behalf of others afflicted with the same condition), there’s a perfectly sound, serious reason: The key to our energy future can only be found in the present. Indeed, Voltaire’s observation that “the present is pregnant with the future” can be said to be literally true when it comes to energy, and more specifically, unconventional natural gas production.
“Unconventional natural gas production” is the rather dry term given to a very exciting development - the use of new drilling techniques and technologies to do what only a few years ago was viewed as impossible - successfully producing natural gas from shales, so-called “tight sands,” and coalbeds. What was really unconventional has become conventional.
I’ve addressed this issue in previous columns, but new developments in this area demand a closer look, particularly when it comes to production from shale.
For those still not familiar with the term, “shale gas production” is production from earth’s most common sedimentary rock. It’s been known for some time that shale can contain natural gas, but it has only been since early 2000 that the key to unlock this treasure chest was discovered. Now new projections show the sheer potential size of the treasure is mind-boggling.
To put this in perspective, first consider that of the 19 major shale basins in the U.S., only a few have been explored. Now take a look at the Energy Information Administration projections. The EIA projects that by 2018 unconventional gas production will reach 26.3 billion cubic feet (Bcf) a day, about 50% of projected domestic U.S. production. That’s impressive. But it pales in comparison to the latest estimates from those who are actually putting hundreds millions of dollars at risk and already successfully producing natural gas from shale formations in the U.S. They now estimate production from just 4 of the shale formations that are currently being explored and produced will be higher than the EIA’s projection of total production from all unconventional sources.
Here’s a breakdown of the projection:
1) Barnett shale in Texas – 8 - 9 Bcf a day
2) Haynesville shale in northern Louisiana: 8 - 10 Bcf a day
3) Fayetteville shale in Arkansas: 3 - 5 Bcf a day
4) Marcellus shale from West Virginia to New York: 8 – 15 Bcf a day
Total: Up to 240 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) a year. Again, that’s just from 4 of the 19 major shale formations. In 2007, the total U.S. gas consumption was 23,057,969 Mcf.
Nor is this restricted to the U.S. In Canada, producing gas from shale is just now beginning in several of the provinces - with promising results. With Canada and the US markets being fully integrated through a network of pipelines it truly is exciting.
Obviously, these numbers fly in the face of those who hold that we’re running out of natural gas. The reality is quite different. We now know that there are abundant, domestic supplies of a resource that can easily be used as a transportation fuel, generating fuel, key component in various industrial manufacturing processes, and most importantly, a key component of a green energy portfolio that includes wind and solar energy.
You certainly don’t have to be a nerd to get excited about that.