“Door Open To Energy Future.” “Proven, Clean Fuel Is Found To Be Abundant In America.”
Those are just a couple of the headlines I long to see when it comes to natural gas, particularly in light of new numbers that should silence those who continue to insist we are running out of natural gas. But I’ve long since learned that one of the more intriguing aspects of the way we use numbers in formulating and reporting on government policy is that while bad news travels fast, bad news accompanied by big numbers tends to travel even faster, however (oddly enough) that’s not usually the case when it comes to good news.
And to say the news is good when it comes to our natural gas supplies is an understatement. The latest comes from a July 2008 study by Navigant Consulting, Inc. (NCI) commissioned by American Clean Skies Foundation.
To cut to the chase, the NCI study shows that when it comes to domestic natural gas supplies:
• Our total proved natural gas reserves are growing, not shrinking.
• Our production of natural gas is increasing.
• Our current estimates of our reserves are too low.
• The driver of both reserve growth and production growth is major shale gas plays located in convenience to distribution and demand.
Even the need for the study is telling in itself. To put it simply, because of production from shale, coal-bed methane, and other so-called unconventional natural gas production, America is like a company producing a product faster than can be counted. A kind of mega-study was needed to get a clearer view of what’s happening and its implications for our energy future. Indeed, the NCI study found that most of the gas-supply data available to the public, from both industry and government, understated both the actual contribution and the potential of unconventional resources simply because their emergence has been so rapid that the traditional models used just have not been able to keep up. Consider: Total U.S. proved natural gas reserves 10 years ago were 167 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). But we produced 170 Tcf, and our proved reserves today are about 212 Tcf. This is because of unconventional gas production, production largely believed to be impossible ten years ago.
Using a model that included actual producer data and analysis, reports in the trade press, government and industry estimates as well as other sources, the NCI study is the first that captures a clear snapshot of what is a speeding train. That picture is made up of numbers that are truly mind-boggling.
At current (2007) production levels, the NCI study puts the conservative estimate of our natural gas resource at 1,680 Tcf, a supply of about 88 years. Impressive. But when the industry survey of shale production is included, the number goes to 2,247 Tcf, a 118-year supply at current production levels.
And that term “current production levels” is important. The fact is that production from shale is still in its relative infancy, with the vast majority of the potential shale plays in America still being explored.
In recent weeks, the idea of expanding our use of clean-burning, affordable natural gas has received increased attention both inside the beltway and across America. This has been accompanied by continued questioning regarding our supply. The NCI study clearly shows the answers to such questions are positive. To quote directly: “The rapid escalation of unconventional production observed historically is continuing, and the unconventional resource base appears adequate to support that escalation to allow significantly increased volumes of unconventional production to continue for decades.”
More simply: We’re richer than we know.